The EU-Turkey deal has been credited with helping to end the migration crisis of 2015-16, and after two years in force it has fostered a myth that such deals are cure-alls. They are not.

Inspired by the apparent success of the Turkey deal, the European Union has chased all manner of agreements with far-off nations. In June 2016, it announced a mix of financial and logistical support to countries including Mali, Niger, Jordan, and Senegal under the so-called Migration Partnerships Framework.

In February 2017, the Malta Declaration included a series of EU interventions in Libya that offered support to local authorities and other groups to reduce the number of people departing across the Central Mediterranean—measures that remain fragile and hotly contested.

These responses place great emphasis on transit routes to Europe — whether through Turkey or the Sahel region and Libya.

But what if the next major event is a different kind of shock altogether? For a start, it will be a flatter crisis: no huge spikes in arrivals, but a diffuse pressure on many countries that will further strain EU ability to respond as it has in the past.

Read the full article about why Turkey-style deals won't solve the European migration crisis by Elizabeth Collett at Migration Policy Institute.