Giving Compass' Take:

· The Brookings Institution takes a look at the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, international development cooperation, and how tension between the regions will impact other countries around the world. 

· How does the unfolding of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry relate to global power and prominence? Where does the social sector fit in?

· Check out this article about global development and US leadership.

The defining geopolitical feature of the first half of the 21st century, should current tensions between the United States and China continue escalating, will almost certainly be the strategic rivalry, or even a new cold war, between these two countries. A geopolitical clash will be costly to both countries. Such an outcome may even be catastrophic for China, where the combination of a hard-line Leninist regime, the revival of a cult of personality-driven leadership, and stalled economic reforms are on track to derail the country as it strives to become a high-income economy.

More broadly, this conflict will produce immense collateral damage worldwide. Besides dismantling the world’s highly efficient supply chain and possibly bifurcating technology standards, the zero-sum U.S.-China strategic rivalry could make it impossible for humanity to confront today’s climate emergency (largely because the policymakers in each country will see each other as their respective existential threat). Meanwhile, poverty reduction will slow considerably, because the fragmentation of the global economy will reduce global growth.

Unlike the Cold War, the unfolding U.S.-China strategic rivalry will not be a contest between dueling ideologies (even though ideological values more narrowly defined in terms of democracy and autocracy will stoke the dispute). As currently framed in Washington and Beijing, this is, at its heart, a contest for global preeminence or power. Also unlike the Cold War, the U.S.-China rivalry, geographically speaking, will unlikely encompass the entire world. Given the strategic priority it places on its own region, Asia will be the main theatre of China’s security and economic competition against the U.S.

Read the full article about international development cooperation by Minxin Pei at The Brookings Institution.