Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition. When such competition entails military confrontation, the pressure to escalate can become intense, and the consequences of escalation can be severe. During the Cold War, thinking about escalation focused on strategies to control a two-sided confrontation between superpowers. Today’s security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats from long-standing nuclear powers, regional nuclear states, insurgents, and terrorist groups. Moreover, the threat of escalation due to attacks on space capabilities has emerged as a critical issue.

From the beginning of the nuclear era, RAND has conducted innovative research on deterrence theory. In recent years, RAND analysts have examined escalation dynamics in the current security environment, the implications of alternative long-range strike systems for crisis management and crisis stability, and ways to strengthen first-strike stability in space.

RAND built a framework for understanding escalation dynamics in the modern security environment. The framework explores various approaches to managing risks in terrestrial and space confrontations, including confrontations with regional nuclear-armed states and large nuclear powers.

Read the full article about nuclear deterrence by Karl P. Mueller at RAND Corporation.