The prediction of high impact climate phenomena can be substantially improved by a new mathematical approach that analyses the connectivity and patterns between geographical locations, scientists say in a new publication. This can potentially save thousands of lives and avoid billions in economic losses. Prediction times for events like El Niño, monsoons, droughts or extreme rainfall could be increased substantially, to a month or in some cases even a year in advance, depending on the type of the event. The new framework can thus become key for improving adaptation to the global warming crisis.

Extreme events like floods, heatwaves or droughts often arrive with little or no warning time at all, making effective short-term adaption challenging if not impossible. The new prediction framework fundamentally improves this, as Jürgen Kurths from PIK, a pioneer of network application to climate-phenomena forecasting and co-author of the paper, underlines: “Currently, for instance, there is no reliable prediction of heavy rainfall in the Eastern Central Andes leading to floods and landslides with devastating impacts for the inhabitants in that part of South America. Our network-based approach can predict those events up to two days in advance – that is crucial time for the people to prepare, save lives and limit damages.”

Read the full article about climate research at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.