Climate change is increasing the frequency and strength of some types of extreme weather in the United States, particularly heat waves. Last summer the U.S. Southwest experienced life-threatening heat waves, which are especially dangerous for elderly people and other vulnerable populations. More recently, record-setting cold temperatures engulfed much of the country during the first week of 2018. This arctic blast has been blamed for dozens of deaths.

In a recent working paper, we studied the effect of temperature extremes on elderly mortality, using comprehensive data from Medicare covering about 35 million beneficiaries. We estimated how daily temperature changes affect elderly mortality as a way to predict how people may adapt to climate change.

Our key finding is that both heat waves and cold snaps increase mortality rates. Several prior studies have found similar results. This means that communities need to plan for the higher risk of deaths from both hot and cold weather extremes.

People and communities have many options for adapting to climate change. They can install air conditioning, or change the urban environment – for example, by planting trees to cool city streets. They may improve readiness at healthcare facilities, or modify public health strategies – for example, by raising public awareness of risks associated with extreme weather.

Taken at face value, simulations from our study suggest that we don’t need to worry about harmful effects of climate change on elderly mortality, because we can adapt through multiple steps.  However, our results do not consider other possible policy responses, such as action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or geoengineer the climate, which may be more effective than relying on adaptation alone.

Read the full article about how climate change by Garth Heutel, David Molitor, and Nolan Miller at The Conversation.