This is a piece written on the ground from Zhytomyr, Ukraine. The author, Vitalii Dankevych, is an Economics Professor at Polissia National University. For those of you looking to help those in need, please donate to World Central Kitchen, the U.N. World Food Programme, and the Global FoodBanking Network.

The war against Ukraine by Russia will have long-term ramifications, not only in Ukraine, but across the world. Russia’s war against Ukraine is also a war against the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which are the main importers of food from Ukraine.

According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, Ukraine exported agricultural food worth US$27.9 billion last year. The highest export volumes of different products were recorded in Ukraine—20,071 thousand tons of wheat, 459,000 tons of poultry, 76,000 tons of frozen berries and other fruits, and 38,000 tons of pasta.

In 2021, Asia continued to strengthen its position as a major importer of domestic agricultural products, once again purchasing a record number of Ukrainian agricultural products. Last year, the value of domestic exports to the countries of this region increased to US$13.7 billion. Supplies to Africa in 2021 also increased from US$2.9 billion in 2020 to US$3.7 billion, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine.

And research by the Kyiv School of Economics shows that Egypt, Yemen, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Libya, Pakistan, and Iraq are some of the countries most dependent on Ukrainian food imports.

Russia’s war against Ukraine will undoubtedly lead to deficit in production and a decline exports is inevitable. The war is threatening farmers being able to plant crops, which is expected to begin in the third week of March.

Wheat, barley, oats, peas, canola, and some vegetables are typically planted in the next few weeks to avoid losing moisture in soils And typically farmers fertilize winter cereals and industrial crops, in particular wheat, rye and rape during this time. When it comes to high-energy crops like maize for grain, sunflower and soybeans, which are sown in April, it is necessary to store a sufficient amount of seeds and material resources.

Read the full article about the world food supply by Vitalii Dankevych at Food Tank.