This month’s tragic mudslides in Montecito, California are a reminder that natural hazards lurk on the doorsteps of many U.S. homes, even in affluent communities. Similar events occur every year around the world, often inflicting much higher casualties yet rarely making front-page headlines.

During my field research as a geologist, I have seen the destruction from landslides firsthand in many parts of the world, including Nepal, China, Indonesia and Peru. Globally, the highest numbers of fatalities from landslides occur in the mountains of Asia and Central and South America, as well as on steep islands in the Caribbean and Southeast Asia.

As with many natural disasters, the effects of landslides are disproportionately severe in developing countries.This difference may reflect a number of factors, including the resilience of basic infrastructure and emergency services; the availability of healthcare to treat people who are injured or left homeless; and patterns of development that determine where people live.

Another major difference is that, at least in many cases, wealthy countries have early warning systems that can alert people to imminent risks. Casualties in Montecito would likely have been much higher in the absence of warnings from scientists and government agencies in the days and hours leading up to the tragedy.

What would it take for developing countries to have similar opportunities? One starting point would be to improve understanding of when and why landslides are most likely to occur. Building better predictive models and using these to improve warnings of landslide risks could save hundreds or even thousands of lives in the future.

Read the full article about developing countries death toll by landslides by A. Joshua West at The Conversation.