The influx of Ukrainian refugees across Europe will improve long-term gross domestic product for European countries that invest in infrastructure and other capital improvements, according to a new study.

However, countries receiving Ukrainian refugees will likely face significant costs in the short term.

“The economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis across Europe will vary significantly, depending on which part of the workforce you look at,” says study coauthor Luca David Opromolla, a professor of international economics in North Carolina State University’s Poole College of Management and College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.

“It’s important for us to understand these potential impacts so that governments and industries can make informed decisions about policies and investments in the face of an ongoing humanitarian crisis. Ideally, studies like this one can help to minimize social disruption and ultimately improve long-term outcomes for both refugees and the countries providing them with refuge.”

When the researchers began their study, there were more than 7 million Ukraine refugees after the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. (The number is now more than 8 million.) More than 4 million of those refugees were of working age, and largely distributed throughout Europe.

To assess the economic impact of Ukrainian refugees, the researchers first collected data from several sources. Data on labor market skills and employment status was drawn from the 2018-19 European Labor Force Survey. Production and trade data was drawn from the most recent World Input-Output Database. Data on Ukrainian refugees’ skill, age, employment status, and country of destination came from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Read the full article about Ukrainian refugees by Matt Shipman at Futurity.