Will AI philanthropy transform global health? While much of the sector continues to reel from the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and the drop in official development assistance, the promised AI boom offers a new beacon of hope. Some estimates suggest an influx of $50 billion-$100 billion per year — although not everyone agrees. With so much uncertainty, donors can be forgiven for wondering what investments make sense right now. Should we prepare for a transformation? Or optimize in a world of scarcity?

We believe that we can do both — prepare for a boom, while building resilience in the face of scarcity. We already have the tools to accomplish this. A few key practices in global health philanthropy will achieve both of those goals at once; practices that our field has learned over many years of deep and dedicated effort.

First, we should fund with a clear eye on the evidence by supporting interventions with a strong, proven case for effective outcomes. Second, we should invest in the local organizations and leaders driving change within their own communities. Third, we should deploy multiyear, trust-based grants to vetted organizations.

Past and Present

We’ve been here before. In 2010, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett launched the Giving Pledge — billed as “the biggest fundraising drive in history” — that could top $600 billion. Fifteen years on, an Institute for Policy Studies analysis found that just $37 billion has reached working nonprofits. In 2015, Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan pledged 99% of their Facebook shares to “advancing human potential and promoting equality.” Their ambition to “cure, prevent, or manage all disease” has since narrowed considerably. None of this erases real progress: the Gates Foundation’s first 25 years transformed global health. But the record counsels humility.

While there is no way to know the results of the next wave, there are promising signs that money will move. Coefficient Giving donated $1 billion to GiveWell, in a commitment intended to seed the ground for even more funding. Anthropic co-founder Dario Amodei announced 80% of the company founders’ wealth going to philanthropy, while its generous matching program fueled estimates of an additional $60 billion.

Read the full article about AI and global health philanthropy by Caitlin Elizabeth Orth, Robert Rosenbaum, and Joel Sawady at Devex.