How Will COP30 Affect Global Climate Action?

China sees clean technology as central to its top national and international objectives: the push for “high-quality development,” technological innovation, energy security, and global prestige. The development and deployment of clean technology, from electric vehicles and batteries to wind and solar, have been woven into China’s core industrial plans for years, including the most recent 15th Five-Year Plan proposals. Now, at a time when the United States is pulling back sharply on climate action, China is doubling down on its effort to become the world’s preeminent “electrostate” and supplier of green goods. In addition, China’s strength in clean technology powers its progress across a host of emerging technologies, from artificial intelligence and robotics to drones and autonomous vehicles.

However, China is also facing some challenges in its pursuit of climate goals. China is undergoing major power sector reform, shifting from long-term, fixed-price contracts to a more market-based system. The International Energy Agency expects China’s renewable energy deployment to slow down slightly due to lower profitability for new projects—although this will likely improve capacity utilization rates. As Chinese clean tech manufacturers expand abroad, other countries and regions like the European Union are asking whether Chinese firms are willing to localize supply chains and share technology. Meanwhile, China has been expanding its export controls on battery technology. Lastly, China’s recent 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution targets disappointed some observers, although others point to Beijing’s strategy of under-promising and over-delivering. While China is expected to portray itself as a climate leader at COP30, there will likely be many questions to follow about China's role in how COP30 will likely affect global climate action.