There is no doubt that many Afghan citizens will need protection in the weeks and months ahead. What remains shrouded in uncertainty, however, is the magnitude of need and where to offer that protection. From neighbors, mainly Iran and Pakistan, to Western countries that have played a role in Afghanistan for the past two decades, perspectives on the unfolding crisis will differ. But all face the same challenge: Offering humanitarian protection that shields those fleeing persecution while being sustainable for host societies.

An Uncertain Displacement Horizon

With the volatile context in Afghanistan and at its borders, data on refugee movements are outdated before the ink is dry. Still, it is known that the armed conflict has internally displaced more than 550,000 people since January. And in the run-up to the Taliban takeover on August 15, tens of thousands of Afghans crossed into Pakistan and Iran.

How many more join the exodus will depend in large measure on how the Taliban leadership rules and whether initial promises regarding amnesty for those who worked with foreign powers or the previous government, the continued right for girls and women to education and work, and the formation of an inclusive government will actually occur. Some reports already cast doubt on whether the Taliban leadership in Kabul can ensure that reality outside the capital.

Economic conditions also may drive departures, with the national currency at a record low, significant employment having been tied to the international presence and foreign investments, and the already devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

And finally, Taliban repression of groups such as ethnic and religious minorities or women and girls could spur migration. Those already displaced within Afghanistan by decades of conflict may be most likely to opt for international movement, having already made that first, difficult step of leaving home.

Read the full article about protecting Afghan refugees by Hanne Beirens and Camille Le Coz at Migration Policy Institute.