India is unlikely to be the last country encountering catastrophic outbreaks as the COVID-19 pandemic persists and evolves. The lessons from India’s experience are especially relevant to other developing countries, like those in Africa, that will not benefit from the shield of mass vaccination in the near term. The overarching lesson is that COVID-19 is a “complacency virus”; its surveillance and suppression must be continually adapted.

The Indian second-wave outbreak is considered by the World Health Organization to have stemmed from the evolution of the highly transmissible B.1.617 or delta variant of the coronavirus, but catalyzed by a series of religious and political mass gathering events and reduced public health and social measures.

The result, as we are now aware, has been the catastrophic and deadly spread of a second wave of COVID-19 across India and elsewhere in the world. The lessons for African countries are twofold.

First, as the COVID-19 pandemic matures, so must virus surveillance. The evolution of new variants has emerged as one of the most important risk factors for outbreaks. Genomic sequencing helps build an early warning system for identifying the emergence of variants of concern, as well as the spread of these variants between countries. Doing so better informs public-health policymaking.

The second lesson for Africa is simply to avoid complacency. Most African countries seem to have, so far, been spared the depth of crises experienced in other regions in the fight against COVID-19. As the Indian case shows, situations can deteriorate rapidly. In many of the African countries in which case sequencing data is available, the delta variant is on the rise. Policymakers must remain on top of evolving knowledge and preparations against COVID-19.

Read the full article about lessons from India's Delta outbreak at Brookings.