For-profit corporations invest large amounts of money in global health R&D to develop novel treatments, drugs, and vaccines for neglected diseases. However, of the $157 billion spent on global health R&D annually, only $471 million goes to neglected tropical diseases. More investment is needed to improve health conditions in the developing world.

One critical illness affecting the developing world is HIV/AIDS. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) attacks cells of the immune system, rendering them vulnerable to infections and diseases. As the disease progresses, those infected become increasingly ill, ultimately culminating in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). It is estimated that nearly 36.7 million people globally were infected with HIV/AIDS in 2016 according to UNAIDS.

In order to facilitate investment in HIV/AIDS and other tropical diseases, our research team estimated potential returns to private investors in antiretroviral therapies (ART), the frontline treatment for suppressing HIV infection. By analyzing the number of people who are estimated to have HIV/AIDS, valuing future ART drug prices, and predicting future ART coverage ratios, we forecasted future revenues for six major African countries, the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa regions, and the world as a whole ...

The risks of investing in the emerging world range from governance capacity and macro-economic conditions to trade concerns, fears of expropriation, and armed conflict disrupting sales and distribution of medication. To overcome these barriers to investment, we suggest several improvements:

  • Expand domestic and international tax credits to incentivize investment.
  • Increase data transparency about drug investments and efficacy.
  • Reform the Priority Review Voucher program to make it more effective for investors.

Read the full article about the profitability of HIV drugs by Jake Schneider and Darrell M. West at Brookings.