El Niño will likely increase in intensity through the end of 2026 and into 2027, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Extreme weather, including drought and heavy rainfall, threaten farmers’ livelihoods, but food security and policy experts say it’s still possible to mitigate losses.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is urging governments to prepare agriculture, water systems, and vulnerable communities before El Niño reaches its peak. The agency is strengthening seasonal forecasting to help countries avoid disaster.

“We have the data and it is not too late for early action,” Lifeng Li, Director of the Land and Water Division for the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), tells Food Tank. WMO states that these early measures help governments protect both livelihoods and food supplies preventing crises when extreme weather arrives.

For farmers, preparation cannot wait until harvest, says Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Senior Researcher at Columbia University and Principal Investigator within the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) at Columbia Climate School. “Governments should combine seasonal forecasts with local community knowledge to make practical decisions that translate into actions before disasters unfold,” he tells Food Tank.

Kruczkiewicz highlights the importance of accurately communicating risk and understanding farmer’s needs during the early planning. He also wants to see governments distribute drought-tolerant seeds, expand irrigation, improve water storage, and strengthen agricultural extension programs.

Flooding also puts logistics and infrastructure at risk. “Damaged roads, bridges, and storage facilities can prevent farmers from bringing food to market even when harvests survive,” Kruczkiewicz tells Food Tank. Infrastructural improvements to protect these systems can help keep food moving during extreme weather.

Regions including South America, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are some of the regions most likely to be hit hardest by El Niño’s effects. Adam Scaife, Head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, also expects worsening drought and flooding across parts of India, Australia. These regions produce many of the world’s staple crops, including maize, rice, soybeans, wheat, coffee, and cocoa.

Read the full article about supporting farmers before El Niño by Andrew Cottle at Food Tank.