Future U.S. charitable giving is expected to be lower under new tax provisions included in the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) law enacted in 2025 than it otherwise would have been under previous law, according to a new research report researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and presented by CCS Fundraising. The study also estimates that more households will give to charity than previously gave.

The report, Philanthropy Outlook: Estimating Effects on Charitable Giving from the One Big Beautiful Bill, estimates how specific policy changes in the new law (also known as 2025 H.R. 1 and Public Law 119-21) will affect both household and corporate giving, as well as the combined effects on giving. The research provides estimates of the anticipated shift in giving behavior resulting from each of the policy changes, holding everything else constant (e.g.,  income, wealth, GDP, the stock market, and other factors). It thus represents long-run annual effects of the policy changes, rather than predictions for any particular year.

What to Know About the Study's Less Charitable Giving From More Donors Prediction

  • Overall, the OBBB is estimated to lower charitable giving by about $5.69 billion per year compared to previous law. That is roughly equivalent to about 1% of all U.S. giving.
  • The number of U.S. households who give is estimated to increase by about 8 million.
  • Total corporate giving is estimated to be approximately $1.55 billion lower, or -3.5% of total corporate giving.
  • The above effects may not be fully seen in the first year the law is in effect, as it may take some time for taxpayers to become aware of and adapt to the new policies.

“Tax policy changes shape charitable giving, and their effects vary across different policies, types of donors and ways of giving,” said Patrick M. Rooney, Ph.D., professor emeritus of philanthropic studies and economics at the Lilly Family School of Philanthropy. “Changes that affect high-income households and large corporate donors have the greatest influence on total giving levels. Policies that broaden incentives to give, such as the newly enacted universal charitable deduction, are likely to increase the number of people who give.”

Read the full article about One Big Beautiful Bill tax changes impacting giving at Lilly Family School of Philanthropy.