This report details the links between ICE activity, the child care workforce, and mothers’ employment. It examines whether the recent escalation in U.S. immigration enforcement—measured by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests—influences employment in the child care industry and among mothers with young children. Using monthly data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, merged with newly compiled ICE arrest data between September 2023 and July 2025, we find that intensified enforcement reduces the number of foreign-born child care workers, particularly highly educated immigrants and those from Mexico.

Certain groups of U.S.-born women, especially less educated and Hispanic women, also experience declines in employment, suggesting indirect “chilling effects” of enforcement on groups not eligible for deportation. The negative effects are concentrated on workers in center- and home-based care, while employment in private households increases, indicating a shift toward less formal, less visible work arrangements.

We also find that heightened immigration enforcement reduces the employment of mothers with preschool-aged children, especially highly educated and white mothers. These negative effects on child care and maternal employment intensify after President Trump’s inauguration in early 2025, when ICE activity rose sharply. Overall, our findings highlight how immigration enforcement policies can disrupt the child care market and limit mothers’ participation in the workforce, with potential implications for the broader economy.

Between December 2024 and June 2025, ICE arrests rose more than threefold, from 8,320 to 29,147. These arrests increasingly occur in public settings—as opposed to prisons and jails—thereby raising the visibility of recent enforcement efforts. Child care centers are no longer afforded “sensitive location” status, and recent press reports have documented ICE raids occurring near and inside these facilities.

Why the Link Between ICE Activity, the Child Care Workforce, and Mothers’ Employment Matters

Immigrants are key to child care. Nationally, about one in five child care workers is an immigrant. Immigrant child care workers are highly skilled: They are more likely than U.S.-born workers to hold a college degree, and they earn higher wages.

Mothers are leaving the workforce. Mothers’ labor force participation—which depends on the availability of child care—has fallen throughout 2025 to its lowest level since 2021.

Read the full article about ICE activity, the child care workforce, and mothers’ employment by Chris M. Herbst and Erdal Tekin at New America.