The war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and climate change have halted food production worldwide and have led to large price increases that are affecting average families, says David Ortega.

Ortega is a food economist and associate professor in the agricultural food and resource economics department at Michigan State University.

What has led to the rise in food costs?

We as consumers have experienced the most significant shock in global food prices in more than a generation.

The COVID-19 pandemic, changes in consumer behavior, and supply chain disruptions have led to an increase in food prices. More recently, the war in Ukraine has affected global grain markets and edible oil markets—such as sunflower oil, palm oil, and other vegetable oils—which have contributed to inflationary pressures on food prices.

How has the war in Ukraine affected wheat planting and distribution?

Russia and Ukraine supply a significant amount of the cereals in the world market, and we are in the middle of planting season in Ukraine. Our report suggests that we’re looking at a forecast of roughly only 60% to 70% of the planting area going into the ground this spring. So, when we’re looking at the global markets for a lot of these commodities, we’re seeing a lot of countries starting to stockpile.

The main effects from the war is going to be in countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa that are highly dependent on this region for a lot of their imports. For example, places like Egypt, Lebanon, and Turkey. Lebanon, a country of about 7 million people, depends on Ukraine for over 80% of its wheat. This is a country that’s experiencing skyrocketing inflation now. Combined with a lot of the vulnerable populations in these regions, they’re going to be some of the hardest hit nations.

Read the full article about high food prices by Kaylie Crowe at Futurity.