Giving Compass' Take:
- Researchers explore factors such as median age, obesity rates, border-closure measures, and geographic location to explain COVID-19 outbreaks.
- How can this research help better understand factors that caused COVID-19 surges in some countries?
- Read about philanthropic responses to COVID-19 surges in India.
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Differences among nations’ COVID-19 outbreaks are due to a country’s median age, its obesity rate, its border-closure measures, and whether or not it is an island or mainland nation, according to a new analysis of pandemic data.
“This research helps to explain the longstanding question of why the pandemic has struck some nations more severely than others, and in particular why more developed nations have tended to have more severe outbreaks,” says Ethan Ludwin-Peery, a doctoral candidate in New York University’s psychology department and one of the authors of the paper, a preprint posted on medRxiv.
The paper’s authors, however, note that geography plays an uneven role in obesity rates and border closures. For example, while the researchers found a relationship between obesity rates and COVID-19 cases in mainland nations, the same relationship did not appear in island nations.
Similarly, border closures had a different impact on mainland and island nations. Island nations showed a strong association between significant border restrictions and lower numbers of coronavirus cases, but this relationship did not hold for mainland nations, suggesting the efficacy of border closures is limited to island countries.
However, the researchers add, the study illuminates forces that may have been previously overlooked–even if they were not universally applicable.
“Obesity has been found to increase the severity of COVID-19 cases, but obesity rates have not generally been seen as a major factor in explaining the differences in COVID-19 rates worldwide,” adds coauthor Joseph Fraiman, an emergency room physician at Louisiana State University’s Lallie Kemp Regional Medical Center.
“The low rates of COVID-19 in East and Southeast Asia have typically been credited to aggressive COVID-19 policies, which certainly did reduce COVID-19 transmission. However, the relatively low obesity rates in these countries may further explain the dramatic differences in COVID-19 rates when compared with many European nations.”
The study’s authors note that early on in the pandemic, the most severe COVID-19 outbreaks occurred in some of the most developed countries—contrary to past spreads of infectious diseases, which have historically taken a greater toll on poorer and less-developed nations, due, in part, to less access to healthcare.
Read the full article about COVID-19 outbreaks by James Devitt at Futurity.