We define an episode of state-led mass killing as the death of at least 1,000 noncombatant civilians over the course of a year or less due to deliberate actions of state agents or groups acting at their behest in a country whose population is at least 500,000.

Our risk assessment is derived from three models representing different ideas about the origins of mass atrocities. Our models learn from 50 years of historical patterns that can help us spot countries at risk of state-led atrocities today.

Top Risks:
  1. Sudan
  2. Yemen
  3. Burma (Myanmar)
  4. Nigeria
  5. Afghanistan
  6. Burundi
  7. Central African Republic
  8. Mali
  9. Pakistan
  10. Democratic Republic of the Congo
  11. Iraq
  12. Somalia
  13. Turkey
  14. South Sudan
  15. Ethiopia
  16. Bangladesh
  17. Egypt
  18. Sri Lanka
  19. Guinea
  20. Tanzania
  21. Ukraine
  22. Rwanda
  23. Cameroon
  24. Ivory Coast
  25. Syria
  26. Uganda
  27. Angola
  28. Chad
  29. Mauritania
  30. India

Read the full article on state-led mass killings at United States Holocaust Memorial Museum