Trump won a personal victory in the 2024 election, sweeping all the swing states, improving his vote share just about everywhere, and—unlike his 2016 victory—garnering an outright majority of the popular vote. In addition, he led the Republican Party to a larger-than-expected Senate majority and, although many House races remain to be called, an expanded House majority may result as well. These gains are more than incremental; indeed, they may signal a new era in American politics and warrant analyzing the 2024 election.

Political scientists and historians will spend years analyzing the causes and significance of this election. My focus is more immediate. Although the data are imperfect and incomplete, I will do the work of analyzing the 2024 election and offer preliminary answers to two questions, which are really two sides of the same coin: Why did Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election, and why did Kamala Harris lose?

An Analysis of the Results of the 2024 Election

Donald Trump’s theory of the case was broadly correct. He and his campaign managers believed that it was possible to build on Republicans’ growing strength among white working-class voters to create a multi-ethnic working-class coalition. He was right: If the exit polls turn out to be accurate, he made strides among Latinos and African Americans, especially men. He increased his share of the Black male vote from 12% to 20% and carried Hispanic men by nine points, 54% to 45%.

In analyzing the 2024 election, it is important to note that the Trump campaign also believed that they could improve their performance among young adults, and they did—from 35% in 2020 to 42% this year. Anecdotal evidence suggests that most of this gain reflected a shift toward Trump among young men. Trump spent lots of time on podcasts, such as Joe Rogan’s, whose principal audiences are this otherwise hard-to-reach group.

After the Republican primaries, the victorious Trump forces faced a choice: They could moderate their message to reach out to disappointed backers of Nikki Haley, who ran a traditional Reagan conservative campaign, or they could continue their all-out appeal to the Republican base while enjoying the grudging support of his defeated adversary.

Read the full article about the results of the 2024 election by William A. Galston at Brookings.