Breakthroughs in the development and deployment of AI and emerging technologies, often referred to as hallmarks of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR),are making headlines and stirring both excitement and anxiety within the scientific and policy worlds. Yet only recently have there been attempts to systematically analyze how AI and emerging technologies might impact development goals and outcomes. With the latest projections estimating that Africa is on track to meet less than 6% of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, the international development community and policymakers alike are looking for development accelerators that can maximize impact and ultimately deliver on the goals of Agenda 2063. It is clear that AI and emerging technologies can play a catalyzing role in achieving development outcomes, but there are important nuances to bear in mind regarding how and to what extent they may do so within different development areas. These technologies also carry potential pitfalls that must be examined. A recent study by Vinuesa et. al assessed the effect of AI on the achievement of the SDGs and found that overall, AI could enable 134 targets while inhibiting AI and emerging technologies’ projected effects on a few key sectors of development outcomes—economic, social, environmental, and governance—are discussed in detail below.

AI and emerging technologies can play a catalyzing role in achieving development outcomes, but there are important nuances to bear in mind regarding how and to what extent they may do so.

Economic outcomes

By 2035, AI could double the GDP rate of African countries. According to Vineusa et al.’s assessment of the SDGs, AI could positively benefit 42 economic targets (70% of what the authors refer to as the “economic” SDG group) while negatively impacting 20 (33%). The economic benefits of AI and other emerging technologies often stem from their impact on productivity, both through improving within-sector productivity and through structural change. In three of the main sectors of the economy—agriculture, industry, and services— 4IR technologies can play a catalytic role in implementing public and private investment, regulation, and service delivery.

However, inequality represents a major hurdle when it comes to the spread of emerging technologies, particularly, the challenge of ensuring that people are not left behind as jobs continue to change in the wake of new technology. Africa’s demographic future—by 2063 it will be home to half of the world’s total working-age population—makes this an extremely important challenge for the continent to overcome.

Social outcomes

Based on Vinuesa et. al’s SDG assessment, AI has the potential to facilitate 67 targets (82%) within the “society” SDG group, including SDG 1 on no poverty, SDG 4 on quality education, SDG 6 on clean water and sanitation, SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy, and SDG 11 on sustainable cities. AI can act as an enabler to achieving these goals primarily through its potential to improve the production, provision, and distribution of food, health, water, and energy services while also contributing toward a circular economy that steers resources most efficiently to minimize waste.

Under SDG 3, which concerns good health and well-being, 4IR technologies are already helping African countries achieve health care outcomes and overcome health crises in more efficient and effective ways. For example, African AI startups are being deployed to monitor maternal health, produce diagnostic imaging, and develop AI-powered virtual clinic appointments.

Within health care, Wang et. al are looking into how health care could benefit from a combination of smaller-scale, task-specific models and large-scale generic AIs which are currently less common in medicine. They find that large-scale AI models can play a particularly helpful role within medical dialog and medical image analysis; however, these models require a far larger amount of data, which could lead to their development being concentrated in regions outside of Africa.

Despite this potential, AI may also negatively impact 31 SDG targets (38% of Vinusa et. al’s “society” SDG group). These consequences stem from the inequality that may increase if these technologies are not evenly distributed (for example, if African small-scale farmers are left behind, meanwhile larger agricultural production companies in other regions capture the market with technology-based solutions), or if AI increases or reinforces discrimination against women and minorities through biased algorithms or image recognition.

Environmental outcomes

The relationship between AI/emerging technologies and the environment has been heavily researched, and the literature emphasizes contrasting impacts. There are important concerns to highlight regarding the environmental impact of AI and other advanced technologies, including resource depletion and carbon emissions if the high-energy needs of AI applications are met by non-carbon-neutral sources. On the other hand, AI has been identified as a tool that can help mitigate the effects of climate change through weather forecasting, early warning systems, land resource management, sustainable agriculture techniques, climate risk assessment, and more, as a GSMA study outlines.

Vinusa et. al’s evaluation of the SDGs found that AI could be an enabler for 25 targets (93% of the environmental SDG group) due to its ability to better model the impacts of climate change, identify oil spills, identify desertification trends, and other use cases.

 

Read the full article about AI and development goals by Landry Signé at The Brookings Institution.