A month into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 3.7 million Ukrainians have fled the country as refugees. A total of 10 million people—1 in 4 Ukrainians—have left their homes, including those who are now internally displaced. This is one of Europe's biggest mass migrations since World War II.

The refugee crisis will most likely be long term. Our 2021 RAND study found that a decade after a conflict ends, only about 30 percent of refugees on average return to their countries of origin. Unless there is a quick cease-fire and resolution of hostilities, then the majority of people fleeing Russia's war today could very well become permanent Ukrainian populations elsewhere in Europe.

At this critical moment, European Union countries have an opportunity to avoid some of the worst pitfalls of how the world has handled other refugee crises. Instead of instating policies based on the flawed assumption that refugees just need temporary humanitarian solutions until they can go home, as many host nations have done in the past, EU countries should create policies that give Ukrainian refugees some level of stability for the medium term and support the communities that host them. The actions that the EU takes today could even put forth a better model for the world's future refugee crises.

So far, the EU has said it will provide Ukrainians temporary protection status for a year, with possible renewal for up to three years, which will give them the ability to work and access social services without having to apply and wait for asylum. This is an important first step—but others will also be needed.

Unless there is a quick cease-fire and resolution of hostilities, then the majority of people fleeing Russia's war today could very well become permanent Ukrainian populations elsewhere in Europe.

Read the full article about Ukrainian refugees by Shelly Culbertson at RAND Corporation.