Giving Compass' Take:

· According to a new study in Nature, climate change is expected to increase the risk of violent armed conflict around the world. 

· What is the link between climate change and violent conflict? How are we working to reduce the impact of climate change? 

· See how climate change is bringing suffering to millions around the world.

Synthesizing views across experts, the study in Nature estimates climate has influenced between 3 percent and 20 percent of armed conflict risk over the last century and that the influence will likely increase dramatically.

In a scenario with 4 degrees Celsius of warming (approximately the path we’re on if societies do not substantially reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases), the influence of climate on conflicts would increase more than five times, leaping to a 26 percent chance of a substantial increase in conflict risk, according to the study.

Even in a scenario of 2 degrees Celsius of warming beyond preindustrial levels—the stated goal of the Paris Climate Agreement—the influence of climate on conflicts would more than double, rising to a 13 percent chance.

“Appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritizing responses, which could include aid and cooperation,” says Katharine Mach, director of the Stanford Environment Assessment Facility and the study’s lead author.

Climate change-driven extreme weather and related disasters can damage economies, lower farming and livestock production, and intensify inequality among social groups. These factors, when combined with other drivers of conflict, may increase risks of violence.

Read the full article about climate's role in armed conflict by Devon Ryan at Futurity.