The relationship between development conditions and migration patterns is both complex and context specific. Indeed, the most accurate answer that can be given to the question of how development policies are likely to affect migration is “it depends.” An array of factors interact to determine how individuals make decisions about whether to move as well as how broader societal migration patterns evolve, each of which will shape the impact of development policies and programming that aim to manage migration. Perhaps most important for policymakers with such aims in mind, the long- and short-term effects of development are likely to differ, with little evidence that development processes or interventions will lead to a decline in emigration rates in the short term - though they may be on a longer timeline.

Broadly, policymakers may want to reconsider the wisdom of employing development policies to achieve the object of restricting migration, as both migration and development experts have been quick to point out. At a minimum, development programs will need to be tailored with a much closer eye to the local context and the specific needs of those who are most likely to move. Programming developed with short-term, migration- management priorities in mind will inevitably look different than initiatives designed primarily to serve development goals; it also runs a strong risk of undermining the core goals of most development cooperation policies—alleviating poverty and creating stable societies. Neglecting these goals may spur more migration in both the short and the long term.