Between Sunday and Monday morning — a mere 24 hours — Hurricane Milton intensified from a tropical storm to a fierce Category 5 hurricane. With wind speeds pushing 180 miles per hour Monday afternoon, before weakening slightly Tuesday, Milton is one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic.

Forecasters expect Milton, which is once again a Category 5 storm as it churns in the Gulf of Mexico, to make landfall in western Florida on Wednesday night. The storm may lose steam before then as it faces disruptive winds and dry air, yet Milton is still expected to be an “extremely dangerous” hurricane upon arrival, according to the National Hurricane Center. Storm surge in the densely populated Tampa Bay, which could see a direct hit, could reach 15 feet, the Center said in an advisory Monday.

Milton is not the typical Atlantic hurricane, according to Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University. “It is exceedingly rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on the Western coast of Florida,” he said in an email Monday. “There are not really any hurricanes on record that have done this and made landfall at a Category 3+ status.”

What’s even more unusual is how quickly Hurricane Milton intensified, defying forecasts and gaining more than 100 miles per hour in wind speed between Sunday morning and early Monday afternoon. Milton had “some of the most explosive intensification this forecaster has ever witnessed!” a National Weather Service forecaster wrote on X Monday.

Why Did Hurricane Milton Intensify So Quickly?

The simplest explanation is unusually warm ocean water.

Take a look at the chart below. It’s showing ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico, which is near a record high. The red line is 2024 and the blue line is the average over the last decade.

And heat is a key ingredient in rapid intensification, according to Brian McNoldy, a climatologist at the University of Miami, who made the chart below. Put simply, hotter water evaporates more readily, and rising columns of warm, moist air from that evaporation fuel rapid intensification.

Read the full article about Hurricane Milton intensifying by Benji Jones at Vox.