Two weeks ago, India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat by volume, announced export restrictions on the commodity. India’s wheat farmers are facing an estimated loss of 15 to 20 percent of their crop due to a devastating heat wave, and the government cited concerns about domestic food security in explaining the move.

While India’s wheat only represents a small percentage of global wheat exports and the government announced that it still plans to export to countries in need, the restrictions are only the latest in a distressing global trend that, if it continues, will add to already-rising levels of global hunger.

Before the war in Ukraine, food prices were already at some of their highest historical levels due to high fuel and energy prices, droughts, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia’s invasion exacerbated them, pushing prices to record highs in March. People in countries with high levels of food insecurity are at greater risk of hunger as bread becomes more expensive and scarce.

The problem isn’t production. Even with the war in Ukraine — one of the world’s leading wheat producers — there’s actually enough wheat to feed everyone in the world. The USDA projects that 2022/2023 production will be down 0.6 percent from 2021/2022 — not good, but not catastrophic in itself. Major producers beyond Ukraine, including India, Argentina, Australia, and Canada, can actually make up for most of the wheat lost or restricted by Russia’s war. The problem is that it is getting more expensive than ever to move the wheat to where it needs to be, and that problem may only get worse.

India is only the latest country in recent weeks to restrict exports. Countries like Serbia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Egypt have restricted wheat exports this year, and other countries have restricted exports from sugar to vegetable oil to maize. While India’s wheat restrictions alone should have limited effect on global food prices, they could push even more countries to follow suit. And that would be disastrous, potentially tipping a volatile global food situation into a crisis.

Here’s why experts think that, and why the world’s governments need to act differently to forestall a humanitarian catastrophe.

Read the full article about global hunger by Siobhan McDonough at Vox.