Between 2020 and 2040, the number of senior households (those headed by someone age 65 or older) will explode. And during this period, we project the senior homeownership rate will drop from 78 to 73 percent. As a result of these two effects, the nation will need to house an additional 5.5 million senior renter households—more than half of whom will be households of color. But nationally, we do not have enough affordable senior-friendly rental units for this growing population.

Our new state-level projections illustrate how needs differ by state and identify the states where the senior renter growth is the most rapid and the need for housing solutions is most acute.

Close to 70 percent of the increase in the number of senior renters will come from 15 states: California, Florida, Texas, New York, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Missouri, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia, and Washington State. The first five of those states will experience the largest growth in the number of senior renters—collectively an increase of more than 2 million renters from 2020 to 2040.

The senior renter shares will also follow different trajectories in different states. For example, New York, which currently has the highest senior renter share among all states, will see its senior renter share increase from 21 to 31 percent. New Jersey, Ohio, and Illinois will also experience similarly marked increases, in part because of an absolute decline in the number of younger renters.

Read the full article about the senior rental crisis by Laurie Goodman and Jun Zhu at Urban Institute.