Fires are burning, storms raging, and communities suffering through “once-in-a-century” heat waves across the globe. So it may seem odd to talk about winning on climate change. “We are in the fight of our lives,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said of the climate crisis in November 2022. “And we are losing.”1

Yet, over the past decade, the world has also seen some important climate change advances—beginning to bend the curve of the planet’s future away from the worst-case scenarios imagined just a few years earlier. As the New York Times has noted,2 in 2014 the world was on track to heat up nearly 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial global temperatures by the end of the century. But mitigation efforts since, as we publish this report, have reduced that to a projected warming of 3 degrees Celsius. That’s still a frightening future, to be sure, but it is material progress.

Thinking about winning requires us to keep two apparently opposed ideas in mind—that we are living in a time of escalating peril and crisis, and that, over the next 10 years, major progress against climate change is entirely possible. As a virtuous cycle of wins generates momentum, we can turn the fight around.

This article considers how donors—especially those who are newer to the cause or thinking about how to significantly ramp up their climate philanthropy—can spur progress on climate change over the next decade, building both on established pathways and newer ones.

In interviews with funders, former and current government officials, leaders of climate collaboratives, and frontline leaders around the world, we asked them to name the most significant climate change wins or signs of progress over the past two decades. Two especially interesting insights about climate change and philanthropy jump out from these responses.

First, there were 10 wins or signs of progress collectively named by at least four interviewees—and philanthropy played a significant role in all of them. Those most frequently cited include the Beyond Coal campaign in the United States, which has helped retire approximately two-thirds of coal plants in the nation; the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the 2016 global agreement to dramatically curb the use and production of climate-warming hydrofluorocarbons; the movement for Indigenous peoples and local communities’ land tenure, which has the potential to protect a vast amount of carbon-storing forest and grassland; and the landmark US Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022.

Second is the great diversity of the wins and signs of progress. Even with the benefit of hindsight, there was only moderate consensus among our experts about past wins and signs of progress beyond the 10 frequently mentioned ones. Policy wins, technology, market dynamics, and grassroots action all had a role to play in addressing climate change to date—and will continue to do so into the future. Some cited very specific accomplishments, such as the suspension of the Keystone XL pipeline or a reduction in the use of palm oil. Others talked about broader trends like price reductions in renewable energy, which have opened up new opportunities for government action and philanthropic impact. This diversity of perspectives about past wins suggests there’s no current consensus about the most promising pathway for progress against climate change. Yet it also highlights an important opportunity for funders—there are many potential pathways to progress, and all of them will be needed.

Read the full article about winning on climate change by Henry Platt, Brian Burwell, Sonali Patel, Bryan Cortes, Kyla Harrison, Joshua Seawell, and Bradley Seeman at The Bridgespan Group.