Giving Compass' Take:

• John W McArthur, Krista Rasmussen, and Gavin Yamey examine the work that will have to be done to hit the child and maternal health goals of the SDGs and what benefits will be reaped if they are reached. 

• How can funders move the needle to help hit these targets? 

• Learn about maternal and infant mortality rates in the United States. 

We examined recent trends in child and maternal mortality and extrapolated them forward to 2030. We first calculated each country’s proportional annualized average rate of fall in these indicators for the most recent 10 years with available data: from 2005 to 2015 for maternal mortality ratio and 2006 to 2016 for child mortality.

Next, we extrapolated the 10-year trend out to 2030, assuming no change in the rate of decline (the “business as usual” scenario). Then we used country-level birth projections, taken from the UN Population Division’s 2017 population prospects, to estimate birth weighted global child and maternal mortality aggregates, alongside country level trajectories for the absolute number of maternal and child deaths out to 2030.

Overall, roughly 11.8 million lives can be saved if the targets are reached, including 1.6 million mothers and 10.2 million children. Close to seven million (57%) of the lives are at stake in only three countries: Nigeria, Pakistan, and DR Congo.

To reach the SDG benchmarks for both maternal and child mortality, Nigeria will need to achieve faster average annual rates of decline than those of any countries recorded over the most recent decade. Considerable evidence exists regarding the interventions needed to achieve these standards. But success will not arise through business-as-usual approaches.

Read the full article on Maternal and Child Health by John W McArthur, Krista Rasmussen, and Gavin Yamey at The BMJ.