Giving Compass' Take:

• Jeffrey Kucik unpacks what the trade war with China means for American jobs and wages, outlining where gains and losses are occurring. 

• How can funders work to ensure the growth of jobs and wages in sectors that are negatively impacted by the trade war? 

• Learn how wind farms are bringing middle-class jobs to poor rural communities. 

With the United States–China trade war intensifying, there is a lot of talk about whether tariffs save American jobs—as President Donald Trump claims—or destroy them.

On May 14th, for example, Trump said his tariffs helped save the U.S. steel industry. Whether or not that's true, many economists and industry organizations argue trade protectionism is actually hurting workers in a range of other areas, such as the solar power sector, civil aircraft, and auto manufacturing.

So is the trade war making Americans better off or worse? Political economists like me have been exploring this question since Trump's trade war began about a year ago. The answer makes a big difference to the economic welfare of American workers. And, with the 2020 elections soon approaching, it may help determine whether Trump is able to remain in the Oval Office.

At first glance, the jobs data does look good for Trump's argument.

Since Trump announced tariffs on more than 1,000 Chinese products on April 3rd, 2018, about 2.6 million new jobs have been added to the U.S. economy.

Some of the biggest gainers over the last year are industries like fabricated metals, machinery, and electronic instruments, all of which saw gains of 15,000 to almost 30,000 jobs over the past year. All those industries enjoy at least some protection from Trump's tariffs.

Of the 20 major manufacturing categories in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, only six have grown faster during the trade war—which arguably began with the threat of widespread tariff increases in April of 2018—than in previous years. The rest, which include chemicals, paper, and textiles, either didn't enjoy a boost or lost ground during the period.

What about wages, which account for 70 percent of an employee's average compensation?

The annual growth in seasonally adjusted hourly pay during the trade war averages out to around 3.2 percent across all private sector U.S. employees.

There are two important things to say about that 3.2 percent. First, it falls short of pre-Great Recession levels, when wage growth was typically a full point higher. Second, wage growth in manufacturing—the sector Trump has lavished the most attention on—actually lags behind the national average at just 2.3 percent.

Protected industries are adding jobs, but wages aren't living up to expectations.

Read the full article about the trade war with China and American jobs by Jeffrey Kucik at Pacific Standard.