Last month, HUD released a signature report on housing needs in 2021, and next month, we'll release another. Taken together, these reports suggest that a rise in homelessness was averted during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when low-income families faced growing housing instability risks and cost burdens, and the federal government deployed historic funding and resources to keep people stably housed.

This week, HUD released an Executive Summary of our biennial Worst Case Housing Needs report, and we will release the full report in September. Worst Case Housing Needs are the housing needs of unassisted very low-income renters that are currently housed but face high cost burdens or severely inadequate housing conditions, or both. The 2023 Worst Case Housing Needs report analyzes data from 2021 and estimates that 8.53 million housed renter households had "worst case needs" in that year, the highest number since HUD started estimating these needs in 1978. Much of this increase was driven by rising rents and severe cost burdens faced by many low-income families as the rental market tightened.

At the same time, HUD's Annual Homelessness Assessment Report: Part 2 for FY21, released last month, shows that fewer people entered a shelter program in 2021, and sheltered homelessness overall decreased by 17 percent between 2019 and 2021.

At first glance, these results may seem puzzling. We would expect a tightening housing market and a rising number of households having difficulty with rent burdens to result in more homelessness rather than less. What accounts for these seemingly paradoxical trends?

In this article, we suggest that unprecedented federal interventions to stabilize housing during the pandemic succeeded in preventing a rise in homelessness, even as housing costs and burdens increased. When those interventions and supports expired, the U.S. began to face (and continues to face) a rise in homelessness.

In other words, in 2021, rental housing costs and shortages placed more people at risk of homelessness than ever, but federal policies and programs provided a level of protection that kept many housed.

We take a closer look at the research reports and the relevant evidence on pandemic-related federal interventions to suggest how HUD and its partners in the federal, state, and local governments could make more sustained — and evidenced-based — strides in finally ending homelessness in the U.S.

Read the full article about preventing a rise in homelessness at PD&R Edge Magazine.